Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.000396 0.000444 0.000497 0.000559 0.000630 0.000707 0.000800
2024-12-15 0.000310 0.000380 0.000464 0.000571 0.000706 0.000870 0.001087
2024-12-22 0.000244 0.000319 0.000414 0.000546 0.000724 0.000958 0.001293
2024-12-29 0.000210 0.000289 0.000394 0.000549 0.000772 0.001084 0.001563
2025-01-05 0.000192 0.000275 0.000393 0.000574 0.000850 0.001259 0.001927
2025-01-12 0.000167 0.000249 0.000369 0.000562 0.000869 0.001349 0.002173
2025-01-19 0.000144 0.000221 0.000338 0.000534 0.000859 0.001388 0.002341
2025-01-26 0.000132 0.000209 0.000331 0.000541 0.000903 0.001520 0.002684
2025-02-02 0.000126 0.000206 0.000335 0.000567 0.000983 0.001722 0.003183
2025-02-09 0.000114 0.000192 0.000321 0.000559 0.001001 0.001815 0.003494
2025-02-16 0.000106 0.000183 0.000314 0.000563 0.001041 0.001953 0.003913
2025-02-23 0.000098 0.000172 0.000302 0.000557 0.001061 0.002056 0.004277
2025-03-02 0.000092 0.000166 0.000299 0.000567 0.001116 0.002239 0.004854
2025-03-09 0.000086 0.000159 0.000293 0.000573 0.001163 0.002415 0.005454
2025-03-16 0.000077 0.000145 0.000273 0.000546 0.001139 0.002438 0.005704
2025-03-23 0.000072 0.000139 0.000268 0.000549 0.001179 0.002606 0.006338
2025-03-30 0.000070 0.000138 0.000272 0.000574 0.001272 0.002910 0.007378
2025-04-06 0.000065 0.000129 0.000261 0.000562 0.001277 0.003007 0.007894
2025-04-13 0.000059 0.000119 0.000243 0.000534 0.001242 0.002998 0.008118
2025-04-20 0.000056 0.000115 0.000241 0.000541 0.001291 0.003212 0.009020
2025-04-27 0.000055 0.000115 0.000246 0.000567 0.001393 0.003579 0.010463
2025-05-04 0.000051 0.000110 0.000238 0.000559 0.001405 0.003707 0.011197
2025-05-11 0.000049 0.000106 0.000234 0.000563 0.001449 0.003931 0.012293